mNCEA policy brief - Plenty more fish in the sea? Counting the cost of climate change on marine Natural Capital

Abstract

This policy brief describes how predicted changes in productivity across the Atlantic will impact the amount of fish that the marine environment can support. This is bound to have important implications for marine food webs and our continued sustainable use of marine resources.

Plankton form the foundation of commercially-valuable food chains to fish • Warming, stratification and reduced nutrient supply has already reduced plankton stocks • Reduced phytoplankton also means less efficient food chains • Even a modest (16-26%) continued decline in phytoplankton will magnify into a 38-55% decline in harvestable fish across the north Atlantic • Hotspots of this future decline in fish are in present-day fishing grounds • This risk-mapping approach provides a forward look for spatial protection and management

This project was funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) as part of the marine arm of the Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (NCEA) programme. The marine NCEA programme is leading the way in supporting Government ambition to integrate natural capital approaches into decision making for the marine environment. Find out more at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/natural-capital-and-ecosystem-assessment-programme